Rob's ASD Pick and Analysis for the July 26 weekend
This weekend of racing features three races restricted to Manitoba-bred 2-year-olds. On paper the races look incomprehensible, and if they were in the Pick-4 they could be argued as “ALL” races. Let’s take a look at some of the ways to make valid opinions on 2-year-old races.
There is really not much to go on with regards to from for these kinds of races. Most horses have one or zero starts and only a handful of workouts to go by. Horseplayers are left to look at trainer statistics, jockey/trainer combination stats, conformation in the paddock, and breeding. Each measureable has its own pros and cons. Sometimes the best thing to do is just watch the tote board, but here’s how I look at this weekend’s three baby races.
ASD Race 2, Friday, July 26
Katie Shimmers is a filly who ran a good race in her debut. She did not have a ton of works going into her debut and did tire a little down the lane. She is by a Texas stallion out of a mare that won in Manitoba, who was very game but not the most talented. Second time out 2-year-olds do tend to improve as they learn the game and while she is a deserving morning line favorite, the 28 Beyer Speed Figure she recorded in her opener is not overly impressive. If any of the first time starters have legitimate talent she could get beat.
Runaway Delite is a K5 Stable homebred trained by Shelley Brown. She went through the sale at OBS April. She was purchased for $8,000 but did not meet her reserve price. She worked in 10 4/5 under strong urging. It wasn’t the most impressive of the works at the sale, but it certainly might be good enough here. Shelley Brown and Chris Husbands have already teamed up for one baby win with another K5 OBS sales runner. This one does not show a ton in the mornings, but neither did Regal Silver and she did win by a length in her debut. Runaway Delight is a half-brother to Today’s Star and the stakes-placed juvenile Dixieland Gold. If she takes money late like Regal Silver did, I wouldn’t pass on her, but I think we would have seen her before this if she was a real monster.
Zdeno is a Cam Ziprick sales topper from the CTHS sale. Purchased for $31,000 by Arnason, Daley, Sundsback and Ziprick, the Milwaukee Brew gelding is a half-brother to Poet and a stakes winner in New York. Poet was a highly regarded juvenile that did win as a baby but probably had higher hopes. Zdeno looks similar to his half-brother, if not a little taller and possibly narrower. He has worked sporadically for the Torevell barn, which has had lots of debut success. They are 20% with debuting juveniles in 2012-2013 with an ROI of $3.90. The workout break between June 13 and July 6 raises some questions, but he has had some good times for a barn that does not tend to post a lot of bullet works. This is probably another contender but I will let the tote board dictate my action.
The other contenders will be Gibsons Finest, who got wiped out at the start for the Blair Miller barn, which tends to get better as the meet progresses. Sagrantino is a half-brother to Calitor trained by Carl Anderson.
ASD Race 3, Friday, July 26
Smoke Show looks like a logical short priced winner. She was given a good Beyer number in a race where she just got tired after dueling. She makes her second start and has experience under her belt. She also gets top jock Adolfo Morales and has lots of early speed. A good looking grey filly, Smoke Show was purchased at the sale for $6,500 and should be tough in this spot.
Crackerjack Cat ran second in his debut, just getting nailed at the wire. He is a horse that looks like he wants to go a route of ground. He has a classical nicking on his breeding with Storm Cat crossed with Seattle Slew. He adds Lasix for his second go round and should go further this time. I think he might be the horse coming late in this field even though he showed speed first time out. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see marked improvement in this spot.
Jet Again is a first time starter for the Chad Torevell, A-Z Stables and Tyrone Nelson. He shows four works on the page and is a half-brother to the stakes-placed My Dream Cat. Again the first time starter stats are there for the barn, but I have a hard time seeing this one being as good as Zdeno just looking at the number of works and bullets. He was a $16,000 purchase at the CTHS sale and is a flashy chestnut with a white stripe. He gets Lasix but does draw the dreaded rail and I think I would have to pick him third in here.
Other contenders are the slightly built speedster More than Wishes and the interestingly bred Captain Fire for Carl Anderson.
ASD Race 4, Saturday, July 27
Wouf de Douf ran a good race in his debut. After bumping at the break he chased the incredibly impressive Megatron Ruler. He tired and finished four lengths back in that race, and the second and third place finishers did not come back to run great Wednesday, but he was impressive at long odds. A half-brother to Northern Twister for Shelley Brown, Wouf de Douf can show speed, and if there is nothing too special in the rest of this group, he very well could be a winner.
Queen of Magic ran a good fourth first time out and did get beat only 4 ¾-lengths. A Magoo’s Magic, she did make a big run down the lane with Jerry Pruitt at long odds. She came back and worked on July 18 in 48 4/5 and that was the fastest work of the day. She probably figured out what her she was supposed to do in that race and marked improvement should be expected Saturday.
Vladimir is a first time starter for the Blair Miller barn. Purchased for $14,000 at the CTHS Yearling Sale, he has three half-mile works below 50 seconds. Adrian Ramos will ride and this gelding is a half-brother to Whisky Wars. He’s good looking and shows a work in company with the highly regarded Gibsons Finest. I would expect that if any of the first timers can jump up and run a big race it will be him.
Other contenders are Nose the Pose, a full sister to She’s Regal, and Movin N Crusin, a closing fourth in her last for trainer Aaron Sayler.
The 2-year-old races seem to be wide open, but each race probably has two or three horses in it that dwarf the others. Good luck uncovering the winners!
Rob’s Best Bets and Weekend Longshots:
Record-to-Date: 8-8-5 from 36 starts
Wagered: $240.00 Returned: $174.90 Profit: $-65.10
Friday Best Bet: Race 1 – Plus Ultra
Friday Longshot: Race 5 – Theministersaffair
Saturday Best Bet: Race 3 – A Girl’s Gotta Do
Saturday Longshot: Race 7 – Thunderclap Newman
Next Post Time for Live Racing: 7:30 p.m. Friday, July 26, 2013