by Rob
Two race cards left and it should be a good weekend to talk about patience and logic. I know this sounds like it should be a simple conversation, but I am guilty for not being patient and thinking outside the box too much at times.
Had a bad bankroll bob week two Saturdays ago and now I will look to close my year off with a bang. Let’s look at the Saturday card and keep in mind these two key points. 1) Horses run well when they are given the proper time off and 2) Horses running out of condition are a bad bet. Late in the meet trainers are pushing for any race that sort of fits for each horse and often they can be eliminated.
Race 1 looks like a logical field where Tara’s Ruler off the claim jumps in for $3,500. He missed the break last time but under the assumption that Cockeyed Justice or Thee Hemi is going to pressure Tara’s Ruler just a little bit, I would assume Justcallmetater runs him down like he did on the Sept. 13.
$10 Quinella 2/3,5 = $20
$4 Exactor 2/3,4,5 = $12
Race 2 looks like it should be B Twenty Four’s race to lose. Poet will run better going six furlongs. I think Minotaur and U Little Dickens are five furlong horses so the logical play becomes.
$12 Exactor 5/6 = $12
$5 Quinella 5/6 = $5
The Manitoba-bred third race goes for the first time all year and throws together a very different mix of sprinters and plodders. Fabulous Gold and Dixieland Gold will both show speed I would think, setting it up for one of the outside four horses. I really have no opinion on anyone else in the field. The value will be Just Add Salt and Sudden Bolt, so I will take a small shot to make some money.
$1 Triactor 4,6/4,5,6/ALL = $24
The Pick-4 kicks off in Race 4 and the race looks like it should go very fast early. This makes me quite like Grand Vision to stalk and pounce. Other horses to respect are It’s Wine Time and Let’s Rocket.
$10 Win #6 = $10
$1 Pick-4 4,6/1,3,4,7/3/1,4,5,6,7,9 = $48
$1 Pick-4 4,6/1,3,4/3,5,6/4,7 = $36
The fifth race is a NW2X race that should give a huge advantage to the proven horses at this condition. Jon Q beat three year old NW1X horses now he tries legitimate older claimers. Lewkacy is proven at two turns even if his form is hidden, Lake Sawyer has been in great form as of late and Da Hoot was close to beating Vader last time. I think these three are going to be much the best. Yankee Candy and Jake’s Mission will go early and El Grayling I think is better sprinting. Lewkacy does not need the lead and neither does Da Hoot and so they will be my top two picks.
$1 Triactor 1,4/1,3,4/1,3,4,5,7 = $12
$1 Pick 3 1,3,4/3,5,6/4,7 = $18
The sixth race is a total pass for me, as I think Portales is an easy winner. This is a weak division and Portales should get a dream stalking trip. She loves this surface and she doesn’t have to run that well to win. Anything more than $5 is a gift.
The seventh race is completely wide open and has a good combination of speed and closers. I have $53 left to use and I will swing for the fences, mainly using Ecton’s Gem, who was way too close last time, and Senior Citizen, who has been in good form lately. Scotty Q who has had two bad trips in a row, and Bubba Rooster will also make my plays.
$0.20 Super Box 1,4,6,7,9 = $24
$0.20 Super 4,7/4,5,6,7/1,4,5,6,7,9/1,2,4,5,6,7,9 = $14.40
$0.20 Super 6,9/4,7/4,5,6,7,9/1,2,4,5,6,7,9 = $9.60
$5 Quinella 4/7 =$5
Sunday’s final card has some good betting opportunities, but lots of horses seem quite logical. I like Our Boy Ken in the first, Zdeno in the Buffalo and Thunderclap Newman in the Marathon finale. Take a second look at Lucky Lady Go and at Great Cause. Good luck! It’s been a good year!
I’ll have my annual awards up next week so come back and check for those.
Rob’s Best Bets and Weekend Longshots:
Record-to-Date: 14-9-8 from 52 starts
Wagered: $360.00 Returned: $276.50 Profit: $-83.50
Friday Best Bet: Race 1 - Katie’s Bigboy
Friday Longshot: Race 6 - Silver Street
Saturday Best Bet: Race 6 - Portales
Saturday Longshot: Race 7 - Ecton’s Gem
Sunday Best Bet: Race 8 - Zdeno
Sunday Longshot: Race 1- Our Boy Ken
