Can we find horses that will make it pay?
This race weekend at ASD doesn’t appear that complicated on paper. There’s a solid collection of a dozen favorites over two days who look very difficult to beat. From Lil Miss G to Johannesbourbon and Zaccheus the favorites look really tough this weekend.
In some cases it’s because fit horses are getting to run against horses making their first or second start. In others it’s because they are eligible for conditions super beneficial to them like General Day in Friday’s eighth race, because he has won six races in his lifetime but for much lesser purses at Portland Meadows.
Over the course of the weekend though, there will be a couple of upsets in the 16 races. Logic and a little creative thinking might reveal the upset candidates and make it a profitable weekend. Sometimes I find that best opinion I have is not that I like a horse, but rather that I don’t like the favourite. Let’s just take a quick run through the card and see who looks even a bit vulnerable.
The first race on Friday looks to be a two horse affair with Prairie Eclipse and Bunny Said Dance having an obvious fitness edge. In the second race Smiling Baby had a really bad trip last time and between her and Vice is Nice, they have a small fitness edge over probable favorite Citizen Patrol. The latter looks good on form, and will probably win, but is worth playing slightly against if the price is right. Friday’s third race looks to be a runaway for Runaway Red and the fourth looks like a good spot for the fit Zaccheus.
The fifth race on Friday is one of the few wide open races of the weekend, as it brings together a wide mix of horses dropping in and sliding around from place to place. Five of the six horses are dropping down in class looking for that perfect spot and Freaky just broke his maiden. This is the most wide open race of the weekend and I’m leaning towards Majestic Patron and Thatsthatabouthat just for condition reasons. Still, that is not a firm opinion. Fool’s Play and Rascal on Tour look like the ones to beat in the sixth race along with Muted Word in the seventh. The eighth and final at ASD on Friday looks like it suits General Day a ton, as he had a weird trip in his last, dueling, dropping back and rerallying. Now he looks like the lone speed.
Saturday’s card is much the same as Friday’s with the first race being slightly open. The second race should be My Natalie’s race to lose and the third ace should go to Lil Miss G. Brock N Rock looks like pure loose speed that shouldn’t get caught in the fourth race. The fifth might be a good betting race. I like Checkered Cab but I could make cases for three or four horses in the race. The sixth race is much like the fifth as it is wide open but the favorites will be tough. I wouldn’t be surprised if Deceptive Miss or Mygallovesgold were to win at a price, but California Poppy and Let’s Rocket look salty. Johannesbourbon looks like the horse to beat in the seventh race and the eighth should be between Katie’s Bigboy and Wisen’shine.
The races should play out relatively simply this weekend. It will just come down to finding the one or two horses that can make it all pay, but hey isn’t that always the hard part.
Rob’s Best Bets and Weekend Longshots
Record-to-Date: 3-4-0 from 10 starts
Wagered: $60.00 Returned: $81.50 Profit: $21.50
Friday Best Bet: Race 3 – Runaway Red
Friday Longshot: Race 5 — Thatsthataboutthat
Saturday Best Bet: Race 3 — Lil Miss G
Saturday Longshot: Race 6 — Mygallovesgold
Next Post Time for Live Racing: 7:30 p.m. Friday, May, 24, 2013