EYE ON LIVE (cont'd)

Longshot trend continues for major ASD stakes races . . .
. . . except for the races for top horses

Deep Explorer continues to dominate top horses by winning the R. J. Speers Wednesday night (Jason Halstead photo)

What an unusual stakes season at the Downs. So far this year--except for the races for top horse (won by Deep Explorer) and top female (won by Miss Imperial)--major stakes races are being won by longshots. It happened again on Tuesday. In the Jack Hardy Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, the least likely horse, #1 Christmas Dance--a “chaos” horse in my books--won and paid $16.40. Do you remember these earlier upset winners?

• Honour Rules won the Frank Arnason Sire Stakes and paid $55.10
• Kickalittlebooty won the Chantilly and paid $34.40
• Dazzling Gold won the Hazel Wright Sire Stakes and paid $28.40

Will that trend continue?

HOTTIES OF THE WEEK (Mon-Wed)

Hottest jockey: Antonio Whitehall (8 wins)
Hottest trainer: Jerry Gourneau (6 wins)
Biggest longshot: Double Time $127.60  (Race 4 Tuesday)
Stakes champions: Christmas Dance (Jack Hardy), Deep Explorer (R.J. Speers)
Upcoming stakes: Derby Trial (Monday), R.C. Anderson (Tuesday)
Carryovers: $38,030 in the Jackpot pick-5; $91,960 in the Super Hi-5

THE (LONG BUMPY) ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Will filly win Blue Grass Stakes tomorrow?
Hasn't been a filly in the Kentucky Derby since 2008

Filly Swiss Skydiver winning the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn (Coady Photo)

Not since Eight Belles in 2008 has a filly tried to beat the boys in the Kentucky Derby. But that could change this year if Swiss Skydiver does well in tomorrow’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

She won her last three races including two grade 2 events, the Gulfstream Oaks and Santa Anita Oaks, and the grade 3 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn which guarantees her entry in the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Kentucky Derby. But she needs qualifying points tomorrow to put her into the 20-horse starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. The points distribution is 100-40-20-10 for the top four finishers.

The Kentucky Oaks purse money is $1.25 million; the Derby is $2 million. Three fillies have won the Kentucky Derby in its 144-year history, the last being Winning Colours 32 years ago. Swiss Skydiver’s 107 Equibase speed figure in the Santa Anita Oaks puts her pretty much on par with talented colts.

Should be a good race. There are 13 entrants. Post time is 4:30 p.m. CDT.

HANDICAPPING THE CHAOS HORSE

Is awareness of the "chaos" horse helping you?
Have you noticed there's been a "chaos" winner a day at ASD?

Once you’ve picked your “logical” horses, are you looking for that potential “chaos” horse? Previous columns have estimated that a “chaos” horse wins 15-20 per cent of the time. Interestingly, chaos horses have been winning at ASD this week at a 15 per cent clip--one each day.

MONDAY: The only horse that didn’t figure in the pick-5 and therefore rated the “chaos” designation was #5 Mark Ye Well at 10-1 in race 6. (I added him to my tickets simply because leading jockey Antonio Whitehall was riding.)

TUESDAY: A total outsider, #1 Christmas Dance ($16.40) won the Jack Hardy Stakes. To get her, you would have needed to take “all” in your sequence bets. NOTE: There was a much bigger payoff horse on the card, the $127.60 horse Double Time in race 4, but it was a logical pick because of high pace numbers. Every longshot is not necessarily a chaos horse.

Note “chaos” written next to horse that set up $3,556 pick-5 at Woodbine

WEDNESDAY: Race 3, the first leg of the pick-5, was won by the longest shot in the race, #5 Lucky Benny, but I had to add him simply because he was being ridden by Alberta’s leading rider, Rico Walcott.

My biggest regret of the week was not arguing for my chaos horse, Ima Beast at 38-1, in Woodbine’s pick-5 last Saturday. There were two exceptional horses in the race but I wrote “chaos” next to a horse I thought could possibly get away on the field although she had finished seventh last time. She did, setting up a $3,556 pick-5 payoff. Groan.

But that proves the value of having “chaos” flashing in the back of your brain while handicapping. That should ultimately produce sizable winning tickets. Are you similarly aware?