HANDICAPPING

"I always watch replays of horses racing outside"
Former Handicapper of the Year nails 32-1 horse to win November tourney

Jeff Rozmus Nails a 32-1 longshot

Sometimes one good longshot is all a player needs to win a handicapping tournament. And so it was for Jeff Rozmus, 67, a retired City of Winnipeg sewer bylaw enforcer, who won the second-last Player’s Choice tournament of the year this past Saturday. He also brought into the tourney his reputation as the 2012 Handicapper of the Year.

“I always watch replays of horses racing outside (in previous races),” he told The Insider. In race 4 at Churchill, he noted 32-1 Warrior in Chief “had been seven wide his whole trip and still finished with guts up the stretch.” Warrior in Chief won and Rozmus padded his bankroll with a 26-1 horse, Traipsing, in the last race at Aqueduct. As a speed horse, “I thought he could clear.” Which he did, ultimately resulting in a second-place finish. (For contest purposes, bets are capped at $42, $22, $12 across the board.)

Part of handicapping in these COVID-19 times is avoiding distractions at home, especially in tending to three female grandchildren, 3, 5 and 7 years of age. “My wife teaches the 7-year-old grade 2 and the 5-year-old kindergarten. And I handle the discipline,” Rozmus said.

The top five finishers and their prize money:
1. Jeff Rozmus -- bankroll $108 -- $1,000 prize money
2. Mel Peddle -- $78.10 -- $400
3. Jane Baxter -- $78.00 -- $200
4. Brian McKellar -- $77.70 -- $100
5. Kathy Phelps -- $73.80 -- $50

*       *       *

Jones passes Jones in HOTY battle
One Jones is on a roll while the former leader slumps

A Roger Jones tournament play simply stops

Transit driver Roger Jones wasn’t surprised Saturday when retired salesman Trevor Tilston-Jones passed him to become the new leader for the title of Handicapper of the Year that will be awarded after the final Player’s Choice tournament on Dec. 14. Trevor has 230 points to his 219.

“I’ve been in a slump,” Roger told The Insider. And, as if he needed proof, his 9-1 contest pick in a quarter horse race at Lone Star Park came out of the gate and stopped. Simply stopped. “Figures!” Jones said.

To regain the lead he must finish at least fourth in the final tournament. At least he had a hopeful sign in a later race on the Lone Star card when his bombs-away 38-1 tournament play lost by only a half-length, finishing third. If the horse had won, he would have maintained his HOTY lead.

Rob MacLennan Calling a race started as a joke

A BIG SHOUT-OUT to one of the most versatile people in the racing business, former ASD paddock host Rob MacLennan, who now is doing a more-than-adequate job calling harness races at Century Mile race track in Edmonton. He had been the race secretary for Century Mile’s thoroughbred meet and calling a harness race “started as a joke,” he told The Insider.

It turned out he’s a natural at it (listen to him call a race in mid-November here). The only trouble, he said, is remembering to use harness terms and not fall back on his “default” thoroughbred terms. “Harness horses don’t run, they pace. Then there’s first over, pocket, gapped off cover, hobbles, driver, etc.” He’s also the track handicapper and creates the morning line.

Patrick Mahomes Did he give permission?

YOU NAMED ME WHAT? Mahomes. Hey, I thought a living person had to give written permission to have a horse named after him. Is that what quarterback Patrick Mahomes did? Or maybe his father, Pat Mahomes, a Major League Baseball pitcher did. At any rate, Mahomes, the 3-year-old gray gelding sired by Cairo Prince, has a record of 10-1-4-1 racing at Prairie Meadows. There’s a 2-year-old quarter horse named Mahomes, too. He finished second and third in Futurity Trials at Ruidoso in New Mexico.

HORSE WORSHIP

Thousand Words trains up a storm
The colt I picked to win Kentucky Derby prepares to race in Los Al meet

Thousand Words winning Shared Belief stakes on Aug. 1 (Eclipse Sportswire photo)

Never say die. Will Thousand Words, the colt I predicted would win the Kentucky Derby, finally justify the faith I put in him and silence the naysayers?

Good signs are there. The son of Pioneerof the Nile, trained by Bob Baffert, has been working up a storm at Santa Anita, likely to prepare for a start in the Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet that begins tomorrow. He worked five times in the past five weeks, two of them bullets. Last Saturday he was fastest of 37 horses at 5f in one minute flat.

Thousand Words never got to race in the Kentucky Derby because he flipped in the paddock before the race. That effectively shredded $200 in future wagers I had bet on him, some at odds of up to 65-1. His subsequent start in the Preakness Stakes was a head scratcher. After going to the lead he offered little resistance when other horses came to him.

His owners, Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm, who paid $1 million for him at a yearling sale have to be crossing their fingers as well.

ROAD TO THE LASIX-FREE KENTUCKY DERBY*

Toughest test for 2-year-olds goes Saturday
Juveniles must go 1 1/8 miles in Kentucky Derby prep race, the Remsen

The Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct, named for the colonel who commanded soldiers in the U.S. revolutionary war of 1776, is the toughest test of the year for 2-year-olds. That’s because the distance is the longest in their young careers--1 1/8-miles.

Although the Remsen hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Go for Gin in 1994 and Thunder Gulch in 1995, there are other notable winners including Honor Code, Mohaymen and Catholic Boy. Of course, Catholic Boy.

Life Is Good is favoured to win Kentucky Derby (Benoit photo)

AS PREDICTED, LIFE IS GOOD IS FAVOURED TO WIN THE DERBY: After Del Mar race caller Larry Collmus gushed over the ease in which Life Is Good won his debut race two weeks ago (see last week’s Insider), it was inevitable the juvenile would become the single-horse favourite in the first Kentucky Derby future wager pool this past weekend. (Canadians couldn’t bet into the pool because federal regulations don’t allow bets to be carried over to a new year.)

After three days of wagering, Life Is Good settled at 5-1 while Essential Quality, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, was 8-1. As usual, though, the “all other horses” option went off at odds of 6-5. See full list here.  

*HORSES WHO RACE ON LASIX ARE BANNED FROM THE DERBY: Lasix has been banned from both the Kentucky Derby on May 1 and the Kentucky Oaks on April 30 and horses racing in prep races leading to those races will only receive qualifying points to enter those races if they race Lasix free.

THE WEEK THAT WAS

NEW SINGLE-TEAM SPORTS WAGERING BILL INTRODUCED: Canada’s Parliament has introduced a bill that will allow single-team bets. Up to now, sports bettors had to combine a favourite team with at least two other teams. It was like having to bet a pick-3 when you’d prefer to make a win bet.

Turfway Park has a new Tapeta surface

LEADING TRAINER PRAISES TURFWAY PARK’S NEW TAPETA SURFACE: Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky opened its winter meet this week to praise for its newly-installed Tapeta track. “Our horses have been training for a few weeks over the new Tapeta track and it appears to be an excellent racing surface,” said leading trainer Brad Cox. Turfway previously had a Polytrack synthetic surface as Woodbine did but, like Woodbine, replaced Polytrack with Tapeta. Racing goes from Wednesday to Saturday at 5:15 p.m. CT. 

“I WON BIGGER” BETTING GROUP SOLDIERS ON: There always seems to be a new way for Saturday’s “I won bigger” betting group to take a hit. Last Saturday, a key in Gulfstream West’s pick-6 wasn’t taken as a key because he hadn’t had a workout in more than a month--when three weeks is the usual requirement. Except, as we found out later, this workout rule doesn’t apply to turf races, only dirt races. Which meant that the 7-1 horse could have been singled and more horses taken in other legs to possibly win the $6,000 payoff. Oh well, we bandage more wounds and soldier on, concentrating on Tampa this Saturday. Will the racing gods get nicer as we get closer to Christmas?

David Gourneau (1956-2020)

ASD HORSE OWNER, BROTHER OF LEADING TRAINER PASSES: These have been sad days for the large Gourneau family and racing communities in Manitoba and North Dakota as horse owner David Gourneau, brother of leading ASD trainer Jerry Gourneau, died at 64 last Tuesday in a Fargo, ND hospital. After a career in education as a teacher and principal, he joined his three brothers racing at Assiniboia Downs and at North Dakota tracks. His horses had 249 starts, with 33 winning and almost 100 of them finishing in the money. Fittingly, his last start--a futurity stakes race at North Dakota Park in July-- was a winning one. As his obituary reads: “David will be forever missed and lovingly remembered.”

EXPERT PICKS ON THANKSGIVING DAY TURNED INTO A MIXED BAG: Racing picks in The Insider last Thursday for U.S. Thanksgiving Day by ASD’s Kirt, Marshall and Stretch turned into a mixed bag. Kirt’s horse with a morning line of 10-1, emerged as the favourite but finished fifth; Marshall’s horse at Del Mar was scratched and Stretch’s race favourite at Del Mar ran second.

Only a memory now

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST: So Gulfstream Park West--formerly Calder--is no more. The Florida track associated with one of the most memorable race-calling phrases in racing--“and they’re not going to get him today” by the late Phil Salzman--officially closed its doors Saturday, creating a rush of nostalgia among those who enjoyed the feel of the place--as I did.

RESULT OF 2017 CANADIAN DERBY IS FINALLY OFFICIAL: Alberta trainer Tim Rycroft can finally say the horse he trained for the 2017 Canadian Derby, Double Bear, won the $150,000 Derby--because an Alberta tribunal reversed a ruling by track stewards and backed his contention that the actual race winner, Robertino Diodoro’s Chief Know It All, had interfered with his horse.

TOP 3 NFL PICKS by TravyFootball: Week 13

Dolphins over Bengals (Sunday noon): This SHOULD have been the first meeting between the top two drafted quarterbacks but both are injured. Joe Burrow of the Bengals is having his knee reconstructed and Tua Tangovialoa of the Dolphins has an injured thumb on his throwing hand. There is a chance Tua can still play in this game but it really doesn’t matter who is at the helm because the Bengals have no shot. 

Titans over Browns (Sunday noon): The Browns might be the worst 8-3 team I’ve seen in a long time. Up until last week, Browns QB Baker Mayfield hadn’t thrown a touchdown pass since week seven. They beat all the bad teams and lose to all the good teams. Titans running back Derek ”King” Henry had a monster game against the Colts last week (178 rushing yards and three touchdowns) and I don’t see the Browns slowing him down. 

49ers over Bills (Monday night): After completing the season sweep of the LA Rams last week, the 49ers will try to keep their playoff hopes alive by beating the Bills. As if San Fran hasn’t had enough to deal with this season (with half the team on IR), new COVID restrictions in Santa Clara (where their stadium is located) means they will play their last two “home” games in Arizona. Good grief! 

LAST WEEK’S PICKS (1-1): After suffering yet another loss to the Texans, the Lions figured it was time to clean house by firing their coach and their GM....The Cowboys tried to pull off the WORST fake punt in football history which ultimately cost them the game against the Redskins .... And the “Coronabowl” between the Ravens and Steelers was postponed to yesterday with the Steelers winning 19-14.